The Main Directions of the World's Movement
The future of the world will be shaped by three main trends:
From Unipolarity to Multipolarity:
Declining Role of the U.S.: American leadership is becoming more selective and transactional. In a survey of analysts, only 37% expect the U.S. to lead the world by 2030, compared with 70% who believed this for 2026.
Rising Influence of China, India, and Other Centers of Power: A "multi-centric" world is forming, where power is dispersed.
Risk of Europe's Marginalization: Experts warn that the formation of new interaction formats between the U.S., China, Russia, and India could lead to Europe's economic peripheralization and loss of its regulatory influence.
The Crisis of Democracy and Growing Uncertainty:
A Two-Decade Trend: Freedom in the world has officially been in decline for two decades. There are now more autocracies than democracies.
Trust in Institutions: Trust depends increasingly on results, not ideals. The inability of authorities to ensure security and a decent standard of living undermines their legitimacy.
A New Nuclear Arms Race: The expiration of the START treaty in February 2026 and militarization (China is building up its arsenal to 1,000 warheads by 2030, global military spending could double) signal the end of the era of nuclear deterrence.
Fragmentation of the Global System:
Monetary System: The world is moving toward an era of "multi-currency." The dollar remains dominant, but de-dollarization is accelerating, alternatives to SWIFT are emerging, and settlements in national currencies are expanding.
Trade and Supply Chains: Globalization is transforming. A shift from "just efficiency" toward resilience. Regionalization of supply chains is occurring, restructuring them around regional hubs.
Thriving and Ruinous Countries
The future of countries will be determined by their ability to adapt to fragmentation and new technologies.
Countries and Regions That Will Thrive
Asia (especially the Asia-Pacific region) will become the main center of growth.
| Country/Region | Key Factors for Prosperity |
|---|---|
| Emerging Asia (Vietnam, India, Indonesia) | Expected to see the highest growth rates. Favorable demographics, growing tech industries, expanding domestic markets, and a transition to higher-value-added manufacturing. |
| China | By 2030, could contribute more to global economic growth than all developed economies combined. |
| Technology-exporting countries (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam) | Benefiting from the boom in AI-related technology and semiconductor exports, showing resilience even amid trade wars. |
Structural Factors of Success:
Technological Sovereignty: Control over systems (data, chips, clouds, payments) becomes key. Technology companies are the new geopolitical players.
Demographics: A young, growing population is a huge advantage for developing Asian economies.
Countries on the Brink of Ruin
A number of developing countries, especially in Africa, are in the high-risk zone for debt crises.
Key Risks and Vulnerable Countries:
Africa Under Pressure: Countries suffer from a heavy debt burden, exacerbated by external shocks (e.g., rising oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East).
Specific Examples: Citi forecasts possible defaults within the next two years for Senegal, Mozambique, and Malawi.
Senegal: In "quite serious disarray" after a hidden debt crisis came to light at the end of 2024.
Mozambique and Malawi: At risk of default as early as 2026 due to sharp currency weakening.
Global Debt Crisis: 44 countries in the Global South have extremely high debt loads, limiting fiscal space, reducing spending on education and healthcare, and exacerbating poverty.
Who Can Survive? Even in Africa, there are countries showing resilience (e.g., the Democratic Republic of Congo), but the overall trend is high vulnerability to external shocks and debt dependence.
Who Will Rule?
In the near future, "rule" will not be a single hegemon, but a network of mutually influencing forces.
No Single Superpower: The U.S. remains a powerful force but is losing its role as the "anchor" of the system. It is being replaced by a multi-centric world, where not only states but also transnational corporations (tech giants) dominate.
"Middle Powers" in a New Role: They will be able to exert influence by acting in niches (e.g., AI regulation), without trying to compete with the U.S. and China on a grand scale.
The Battle of Governance Systems: The world is entering a period of intense competition between governance models, where authoritarianism feels more confident. The future will be determined by whose institutions can better ensure security, justice, and opportunity.
Overall Conclusion
The world is moving toward a "polycrisis" — the overlapping of multiple interconnected crises: geopolitical, technological, environmental, and political. The key challenge is the ability of nations to adapt to fragmentation, invest in technology, and ensure internal stability. Asia is becoming the main beneficiary, while Africa and countries with high debt levels risk falling into a zone of permanent crisis. It will not be a single leader that rules, but the complex system of forces that can ensure relative stability and development amid this chaos.
