The Future of Russia
The future of Russia over the next 10 years appears to be a period of rigid stagnation, where the stability of the economy and political system will be maintained at the cost of technological backwardness and internal consolidation. This is not a collapse, but rather a "stagnation" — a slow, but steady movement toward isolation. This picture emerges from three key elements: scenarios of power, the demographic crisis, and domestic policy aimed at consolidation.
? Geopolitical Scenarios: War, Peace, or a Nuclear Strike
The officially recognized scenarios discussed at the highest levels paint extremely polarized pictures. They serve less as actual forecasts and more as tools to justify a hardline stance and to demonstrate the Kremlin's "moderation" against the backdrop of radicals:
"Negative" Scenario: Military defeat in Ukraine, Ukraine's accession to NATO, loss of influence in the post-Soviet space, and, in the long term up to 2050, the "colonization" of Russia.
"Inertial" (ongoing) Scenario: A frozen conflict with Ukraine and a new arms race. This scenario assumes the use of nuclear weapons by 2036 if the current military situation persists.
"Positive" Scenario: The use of nuclear weapons, the capture of Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv, the collapse of the European Union, and the establishment of control over all of Ukraine.
ISW analysts consider these scenarios extreme and likely different from the Kremlin's actual plans. However, the very fact of their public discussion shapes a harsh discourse in which nuclear weapons are viewed as a legitimate instrument of policy.
???? Demographics and Economy: Stagnation and a Shortage of People
Economic development will be constrained by two fundamental factors: personnel shortages and technological isolation.
Demographic Crisis: VTsIOM predicts a continuing trend of declining birth rates and an aging population through 2036.
The share of the population over 65 already exceeds the share of children.
The active working-age population (25-50 years old) will shrink from the current 53 million to 48 million people over the next 10 years.
This creates an acute labor shortage, which, under optimistic forecasts, should be offset by robotization — but Russia seriously lags in this indicator.
"Stagnation" Economy: According to expert estimates, the economy will not collapse, but it will not accelerate either — ahead lie 10 years of slow growth.
Technological Blockade: Sanctions severely limit access to advanced technologies, reducing long-term competitiveness and making even maintaining current oil production levels problematic.
Service Sector: Transformation will be concentrated in the service sector (retail, finance), while technological changes in industry will proceed slowly.
⚖️ Domestic Politics: Strengthening Unity Through Identity
On the political horizon lies consolidation around a new state identity, enshrined in the National Policy Strategy through 2036.
Target Indicators: By 2036, 95% of Russians should share a common Russian civic identity, and 85% should positively assess interethnic relations.
Ideological Emphases: The document emphasizes combating Russophobia, protecting traditional values, and the inadmissibility of falsifying history. Some analysts view this as effectively a strategy of Russification, aimed at suppressing ethnic identities in the name of "unity."
Social Measures: To overcome the demographic crisis, discussions are underway about transitioning to large-scale incentives, including the introduction of an "unconditional maternity capital" for the second and subsequent children in the amount of 1.5–2 million rubles, which would require significant budget expenditures.
? Conclusion
The future of Russia through 2036 is a choice between managed stagnation and radical escalation. The economy, constrained by demographics and sanctions, will slowly degrade, while the political system will consolidate around the idea of a "besieged fortress." The implementation of the "positive" foreign policy scenario, which requires a nuclear strike, remains an officially acknowledged but highly unlikely possibility — yet it is precisely this possibility that shapes the entire logic of current policy.
